Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Bolifen’s high-income expansion of reforms outside the province gradually releases dividends

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Bolifen’s high-income expansion of reforms outside the province gradually releases dividends

Event revenue grew rapidly, and third-quarter results exceeded expectations.

The company announced the third quarter report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 91 from January to September of 19th.

27 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

72%; net profit attributable to mother 16.

960,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

36%, corresponding to basic EPS1.

95 yuan / share.

19Q3 achieved revenue of 27.

49 trillion, with an increase of 34.

45%, compared to the first quarter (+20.

12%), second quarter (+26.

30%) speed up significantly; achieve net profit attributable to mothers5.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 53 in ten years.

62%, exceeding previous market expectations.

Core point of view Bolifen’s high growth performance was dazzling, and growth outside the province accelerated.

In terms of products, the first three quarters of Fenjiu and series wines achieved revenue of 79.

8.9 billion, 6.

9.3 billion, of which Bengfen’s rapid heavy volume income continued to increase rapidly, the blue and white rose faster than the previous month, and the income of Laobaifen grew steadily.

By region, in the province, the income outside the province was 44 from January to September.

7.6 billion yuan (+7.

66%), 45.

6.8 billion (+68.

42%); In 19Q3, the provinces and provinces respectively realized income13.

2.7 billion (+3.

13%), 14.

2 billion (+139.

87%).

Benefiting from increased investment promotion and intensive cultivation of channels, the company’s out-of-province revenue growth has increased significantly, and the current revenue share has exceeded half.

In terms of advance receipts, the company’s advance receipts at the end of September were 18.

4.1 billion,天津夜网 an increase of 3 from the previous month.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 113 in ten years.

94%.

The gross profit margin dropped slightly, and the decline in tax rates boosted profits.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of the year decreased by 0.

25pct to 69.

19%, which is believed to be caused by the high increase of Bofen, which lowered the overall product structure; the sales expense ratio increased by 0 from January to September.

24pct to 18.

18%; the management expense rate has increased by 0 in ten years.37 points to 5.

84%; taxes and surcharges as a percentage of revenue also decreased by one.

29 cases reached 17.

11%; mainly benefited from the decrease in tax rate, and the net sales margin increased by 0.

26 points to 19.

85%, profitability has steadily increased.

The positioning of famous wines contributed to the expansion, and the dividends of the state reform showed results.

As a leading company in fragrance-based liquors, famous wine brands have gained popularity among the people. Excellent brand power and products have helped the external market continue to expand, which is expected to drive the company’s revenue and market share.

The cooperation between the company and China Resources is expected to achieve synergy in channels, funds, marketing, management and other aspects to further deepen reforms, thereby strengthening cost control and improving operating efficiency.

Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations Due to the rapid growth of the company’s Bophin revenue, we have raised our revenue forecast and lowered our gross margin forecast.

The adjusted EPS of the company for 19-21 is 2 respectively.

42, 3.

13, 3.

91 yuan (the original EPS estimates for 19-20 years were 2 respectively.

29, 2.

69 yuan).

Combined with the assessment of comparable companies, the company is given an estimated premium of 15%, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 28 times in 20 years and a target price of 87.

64 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risk reminder reform gradually reduces expected risks, demand recovery exceeds expected risks, and food safety risks.