Zhou Laojiao (000568): The performance of the first half of the year is beautiful.
Performance Overview Luzhou Laojiao issued a semi-annual report on August 28, which stated that the company achieved operating income of 80.
1.3 billion (+24.
81%), net profit attributable to mother 27.
5 billion (+39.
80%); achieve EPS of 1.
In the business analysis, high-end efforts were made, and the old cellar was not off-season, and the growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations.
The company’s revenue in the second quarter increased by 26 each year.
01%, in the traditional off-season of the white wine to achieve an unexpected growth, in addition to the national cellar 1573 maintained high growth, sub-high-end products special songs, storage age growth accelerated in the second quarter.
In the first half of 1573, Guojiao repeatedly controlled the price and maintained the price. At the same time, it continued to promote the “eastward entry to the south”. In the first half of the year, East China and South China achieved rapid growth.It has maintained rapid growth; the cellar-age wine has been adjusted this year, and the growth rate has been slightly slower since the beginning, but it has shown a good trend in the first half.
Taken together, the company’s high-end wine revenue increased by 30 in the first half.
5%; mid-range wine increased by 35.
1%, the middle and high end are working together to promote the company’s revenue to achieve higher growth.
The expense ratio was basically stable, and the optimization of the product structure promoted the increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin.
The company achieved a gross profit margin of 79 in the first half of the year.
70%, an increase of 4 per year.
79pct, mainly due to the optimization of product structure: medium and high-end wines with higher gross profit margins (gross profit margins were 91 respectively.
6%) revenue share increased previously 4.
5pct to 81.
From the perspective of expenses, in the first half of the year, the company continued to promote “eastward entry to the south”, strengthened brand launch, and increased the sales expense ratio by 0.
64pct to 19.
20%, but due to the increase in internal management efficiency, the management expense ratio has decreased year by year1.
00pct to 4.
53%. Overall, the company’s expense ratio during the period was basically more than flat, reflecting a large number of excellent expense control capabilities.
Benefiting from the optimization of product structure and the improvement of cost-effectiveness ratio, the net interest rate fell in the first half of the year2.
98 points to 34.
The price increase arrived on schedule, and the Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon, and the certainty of the third quarter performance is enhanced.
At the beginning of August, the retailer issued a notice on the supply of the national treasury 1573, resetting the implementation of a 30% reduction from August to September, while increasing the group purchase price and the terminal retail price.
And we think that at this stage, the policy of “controlling the quantity and keeping the price” actually accelerated the company’s release rhythm: According to the channel survey, the dealer’s forecast has formed a price increase expectation, so a large amount of stock has been purchased before the price increase noticePrepare for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day.
In addition, Guojiao actively follows the price increase, so it adopts the form of “small steps and slow walking”, the price rises moderately, and the dealers pay in advance to give enhancement.
We believe that in the third quarter, the company is expected to achieve both volume and price increases, increase performance certainty, and further ensure the realization of its gradual goals.
Earnings 北京夜网 forecast predicts revenues of 162 in 2019-2021.
4 ppm / 200.
2 ppm / 242.
3 ‰, +24 a year.
4% / 23.
2% / 21.
0%, net profit attributable to mothers is 45.
4 ppm / 57.
7 ppm / 72.
9 trillion, ten years +30.
1% / 27.
3% / 26.
3%, corresponding to 3 EPS.
10 yuan / 3.
94 yuan / 4.
98 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19/20/21 PE of 29X / 23X / 18X, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risks suggest that the macro economy is down / the approval price growth is not up to expectations / industry competition is intensifying / distributors control is not up to expectations.